2021 UK Restaurant Trends and Predictions

How the world has changed in a year! When I look back at my restaurant and hospitality predictions for 2020 they seem to come from another world where we took for granted being able to pop to the pub or meet friends for dinner. As a society, we have come to recognise that restaurants, pubs and hotels help to fulfil the basic human need to connect with others and to shape social relationships.

Boom or Bust for restaurants in 2021?

If 2020 taught us anything, it’s that it’s impossible to predict the future, so the idea of making any predictions or looking at hospitality trends for 2021 seems like a foolish exercise. There are those who predict a boom in the hospitality sector in the second half of 2021. Jay Rayner wrote in The Observer in early January: “There will be a desire to spend, which has to be good both for the economy in general and hospitality in particular.”. In July and August after the first lockdown, people flocked back to support hospitality businesses, albeit gradually at first and encouraged by the Eat Out to Help Out scheme. As soon as it’s permitted and safe to do so, we can expect to see a pent up demand to eat out, meet friends for a drink and enjoy the warmth of hospitality again.

Yet, starting the new year in another full lockdown with expectations that it will last until spring, the hospitality industry faces enormous challenges in 2021 and is at risk of losing almost 50% of normal revenue streams and seeing huge numbers of redundancies. The British Beer and Pub Association and the British Institute of Innkeeping and UKHospitality have published findings that suggest:

• 72% of members expected to operate at a loss and to be unable to survive because of the collapse in trade.

• Seven out of 10 UK pubs and restaurants fear they will become financially unviable and forced to close in 2021 as a result of damaging Covid-19 restrictions

• By February 2021 there would be 750,000 fewer jobs in the sector compared with earlier this year.

The Future Shock report, from CGA and UKHospitality, outlines the difficult year for the pub, bar and restaurant sector and sets out the challenges and opportunities facing the industry into 2021 indicates:

• A £53.3bn year-on-year drop in sales between the start of April and the end of September.

• Falling consumer confidence, with 78% of British adults concerned about the long-term financial implications of the pandemic.

• 21% of consumers said they would eat and drink out less frequently than before

• Hesitant business confidence, with 27% of leaders of multi-site groups predicting they will be unviable by mid-2021 with current levels of support.

• insight from recent research commissioned by Marcus Wareing found that 34% of consumers expected to spend less when they returned to restaurants.

2021 will be about settling into a new rhythm and catering to diners in new and innovative way. Here are some of our predictions for the UK restaurant trade in 2021. Several of the predictions for last year seem even more relevant today than they did 12 months ago.

1. Home delivery and finish-at-home meals become the norm.

2020: We predicted that restaurants and pubs should do more to tap into the trend for home delivery with the potential to reach new audiences and increase turnover at quieter times. We wrote: “There’s particular scope for more sophisticated options from high-end restaurants. Yet operators will face a challenge to adapt to this fundamentally altered business model.
“

Lockdowns forcing the closure of hospitality since March have forced hospitality businesses to switch their business model overnight to offer take-home meals in order to keep some of their staff employed and their businesses afloat. New businesses have sprung up, such as Restaurant Kits, to facilitate this trend without the high costs of delivery platforms like Deliveroo and Uber Eats.

2021: We expect to see more businesses find new revenue streams through diversification into take-home meals, cook at home kits and restaurant branded products on the shelves. With no end in sight to restrictions, taking the restaurant experience home or giving yourself a night off cooking, has never seemed more important. While there seemed to be some saturation in demand for home delivery/restaurant kits during autumn, we can expect to see growing demand in 2021 and the launch new platforms and technologies that make it easier for restaurants to improve systems for ordering and management.

2. The Rise of Ghost Kitchens

Until this year ghost kitchens where food is prepared and distributed, but no customers are served were perceived as a niche phenomenon in our cities. In 2021 they will become part of the next normal. While high rents in city centres are unsustainable more hospitality businesses and chefs will move away from the high street towards more affordable ghost kitchens. The beauty of a ghost kitchen is that it allows your operation to run leaner and meaner than ever before.

Before the pandemic, revenue for online food delivery in Europe was experiencing double-digit growth and was expected to exceed £19bn by 2023. In the UK, Foodstars, Jacuna Kitchens and Deliveroo are just a few of the third-party delivery platforms to have entered the game. Yet virtual kitchens are not just for the big operators, with kitchens offering hired spaces they can be a great stepping stone for new businesses in a similar way to businesses which tested a concept through a street-food offering, people will start a virtual kitchen first and then open a bricks-and-mortar site when the hospitality sector can open up again.

2. Provenance, Sustainability and tackling food waste

2020: We predicted an increased awareness in reducing the use of single-use plastics and reducing food waste and encouraged operators to demonstrate the steps they were taking to make improvements. The reality has been that we’ve gone several steps backwards and seen wide-spread use of disposable cups and packaging with take-away drinks and meals. The constant stop-starting of operations as lockdowns and closures have been imposed at short notice has seen an increase in food waste.

2021: With Brexit complete and increased customs tariffs the price of imported ingredients will increase and the importance of sourcing locally will become all the more critical. We should expect to see more British grown produce on our plates. Hospitality businesses will have to rapidly adapt their supply chains, their workforce and shift their long term planning. How they will do this is still uncertain, but many businesses will have to become more reliant on local communities and markets.

3. Eating for Immunity

2020: We suggested that consumers were likely to seek healthy options on weekdays and treat themselves at the weekend and that operators should offer healthy options as well as occasional treats.

2021: Immunity will be the new buzzword for 2021. The pandemic has caused us all to think more about how a good diet can improve our health and immunity. While heavily emphasing the nutritional value of dishes on your menu

4. Contactless technology everywhere

2020: Our 2020 predictions for the importance of technology have been critical this year to reduce contact and enable online orders. We predicted that consumers would more regularly use apps and mobile technology: “Technology will transform the way consumers order food and drink and to change how we book too. It’s clear that personal devices will play a critical role in the restaurant experience, from QR-code enabled menus, to mobile order-ahead options, minimizing contact is important to consumers and has effectively gone from short-term fix, to key priority.”

2021: There has been significant investment in developing new and improved technology to help hospitality operators improve safety for staff and customers and we will continue to see new apps and technology rolled out in 2021. Even operators who have previously been reluctant to adopt systems such as QR codes, remote ordering and contactless payment will be forced to implement these new technologies due to customer expectations. The aim is to make the entire process contactless, so consumers can feel safer and enjoy a convenient, hassle-free experience.

5. Keep engaging with your customers

With prolonged closures and constant changes to rules and restrictions, hospitality operators have been forced to communicate regularly with customers whether through social media, email newsletters or PR. If the experience you offer your customers is one that makes them feel looked after and treated when they visit your pub, restaurant or hotel, it follows that you need to continue to do this even while you are closed.

While the pressure facing operators for both time and budget means it’s all to easy to put marketing down as an unnecessary time and cost, it’s vital that you continue to communicate with your customers (current and future) and maintain an emotionally rich and engaging relationship with your followers.

The most successful hospitality businesses that will emerge from the train wreck of 2020, will be those who understand the emotional connection and use it to bond with their customers. Marketing at its best should be honest, empathic, generous and authentic. It combines brand building with narrative to develop your business into a character with its own personality – one that customers want to see progress and support through the challenges that 2021 holds, and whose story they want to be a part of.

6. Family-friendly dining

2020: We suggested that restaurants and pubs should review their family-friendly dining options, while not necessarily offering children’s menus, but making the experience as welcoming as possible to parents and children. With restrictions on meeting and dining with people from outside your household, restaurants became dependent on bookings from single households and bookings from families have become all the more important.

2021: While it seems unlikely that we’ll be able to dine out with friends and colleagues in the first half of 2021, restaurants and pubs must develop ways to appeal to families and give people a strong incentive to dine out, when permitted, to celebrate family occasions or just for a break from routine.

7. Eat and drink local

City centre footfall is at an all-time low, even during periods when restrictions have eased, office workers based at home and no international tourists, town and city centre venues have taken the biggest hit during the pandemic, while restaurants and pubs in residential areas and the countryside have been supported by customers staying local. While footfall may increase in our cities in the second half of 2021, consumers will remain inclined to stay local and support businesses on their doorsteps.

This is a real opportunity for community-based businesses, which are often independent operators. To survive operators must may more attention than ever to their local audience and not rely on attracting customers even from the other side of the city. With many vacant spaces and potentially lower rents, as landlords look to fill their properties again, this also creates new opportunities for brave start-up businesses, chefs going it alone for the first time and entrepreneurs who’ve been held back before by the high costs of starting a bricks and mortar business.

8. The return of warm hospitality

Even when open, the need for strict hygiene measures, social distancing, and rules on household mixing, have put hospitality operators under huge stress and required them to prioritise policing the rules over offering warm hospitality and personal connections. The requirement to wear face masks and, in some cases, the introduction of contactless ordering and payment has taken away so much of what customers love about going out to eat and drink and the reason why people love working in the industry. In the short periods, restaurants and pubs were open in 2020 we all had experiences of overly officious and understandably stressed staff, being a bit abrupt and sometimes plain rude.

Yet we all crave the warmth of human contact, a bit of friendly banter at the bar or with the waiter, or some nosey people-watching of the next table. Restaurant and pub operators who can find ways to inject the usual warmth and conviviality into dining out will be the first to bounce back. It will be vital to give staff the training to manage any rules or expectations with grace and charm and to look for those extra touches which make the customer feel welcome and valued.

2020 UK Restaurant Trends and Predictions

Read the 2021 UK Restaurant Trends & Predictions >

Is 2020 set to be a more stable year for restaurants and hospitality? After a highly unpredictable 2019 with low consumer confidence and the economy narrowly avoiding recession, is the industry feeling confident about what the year ahead holds?

As widely predicted the rising costs, strong competition and weakening consumer demand have seen the extensive decline of the UK restaurant market during 2019 and it seems likely that there will be no quick fixes in 2020.

According to MCA UK Restaurant Report 2019, the UK restaurant market is set to contract by 3.1% in 2019 - the biggest decline in 7 years. More than 1,400 UK restaurants collapsed in 12 months to June 2019 and the number of restaurant insolvencies was up 25%. Customers have turned their backs on chains like Byron, Strada and Jamie Oliver’s restaurant empire.

But it’s not just the chains that have taken a hit, independents make up the majority of the UK restaurant market with 64% of the value and 84% outlets (MCA) and have taken their share of closures and insolvencies. Visit frequency to independent restaurants per month has fallen -8.3% in the last year.

Pubs and fast food outlets continue to outperform restaurants as they are well-positioned to satisfy the demand for lower-cost convenience.

Millennials (under 35s) make-up almost a quarter of the UK population (source: Statista) and spend a whopping 13% of their income in restaurants and bars (source: Foodspark) so cracking this market is key to restaurant and pub operators’ success in 2020. Yet Millennial consumers are increasingly difficult to attract and have different expectations and habits to their parents so restaurants need to adapt in 2020 to drive footfall and sales from this key market.

Here are some of our predictions for the UK restaurant trade in 2020.

1. Keeping Millennial Diners Happy

Millennial diners value individuality, uniqueness and adventure. They are less loyal and more likely to follow the crowd to the latest opening for the real life and social media kudos.

For this generation dining out is an experience to share with friends and meet new people. They choose restaurants for the atmosphere - they enjoy communal tables and open kitchens that let them engage with the creativity and character of your kitchen team.

It’s no coincidence that the popularity of street food coincided with the rise of millennial diners as it fulfils their desire to experiment and explore different styles of food and new cuisines. Each month the average millennial eats at a restaurant four times but has street food, orders delivery and has food to go 11 times. Food trucks offer unique foods in a fun and often social setting.

Convenience and affordability are also key to this generation - it’s not just about fast food but also efficient service. They like to use technology from booking platforms and self-ordering and payment apps that offer them control and convenience. 


2. Pop Up to Permanent

Millennial diners’ interest in trying the unique and new is also driving a trend towards pop-up restaurants.

For chefs and restaurant operators launching a pop-up site is an opportunity to test a new concept, gain a following, fine-tune details and secure investment before making a long term commitment. These take two forms: ticket-only events or short-term residencies and medium-term site take-overs.



The pop-up concept is also attractive to landlords and property companies who are increasingly nervous about signing long leases following numerous high profile restaurant closures. The bad PR and inconvenience that goes with a failed leaseholder can have a negative impact on property value so they will be incentivising take-overs and rotating pop-ups.

Examples include the former Magpie site at 10 Heddon Street, where eponymous hand-made pasta concept ran for three month - their website now says ‘Details of relocation to follow. Watch this space.” Meanwhile at the same site, Australian chef Shaun Presland has brought his take on Japanese cuisine, Pacific, to London with a strong hint that a permanent site will follow.



Spanish small-plates restaurant, Pilgrim, began its journey as a six-month residency in Hackney before they sent off an application to BBC Two’s “My Million Pound Menu”. The three founders gained the backing of Graffiti Spirits Group with an invitation to open their first permanent site at the group’s Duke Street Market which was then under redevelopment in Liverpool. Following the show, they tested the concept further with pop-ups in London and Liverpool allowing them to refine their menus and build an audience.




3. Do you deliver?

The insatiable appetite for food delivery services shows no signs of waning in 2020 driven by the quest for convenience and affordability, especially from the Millennial generation. The food delivery market is expected to grow in value by 17% over the next two years, indicating it could be worth close to 5 billion by 2020 according to market analyst NPD.

Restaurants and pubs can do more to tap into this trend with the potential to reach new audiences and increase turnover at quieter times. There’s particular scope for more sophisticated options from high-end restaurants.

However, commissions payable to these platforms are typically in the range of 20% to 25% of the total order value and with the loss of drink sales associated with delivered food, restaurant operators will face a challenge to adapt to this fundamentally altered business model.


4. Family-friendly dining

By 2020 over 5.5 million millennials in the UK will be parents and by 2025 they will make up 83% of all parents. Restaurants, pubs and cafés that may have turned their noses up at family groups must welcome them.

This is a generation which has grown up eating out more often than their parents and will take their children out with them and will expect more than a traditional nostalgic children’s menu of fish fingers & chips or sausages & mash.

WholeFoods US has predicted the shake-up of the kids’ menu as one of the top ten food trends for 2020. Parents are introducing children to more adventurous foods and putting health and nutrition higher up their priorities and will demand more child sized portions from the main menu as well as organic produce, wholegrain bread or pasta and more fresh vegetables than you see on usual kids’ menus.

5. Provenance, sustainability and tackling food waste

Consumers are increasingly making more thoughtful choices about what they eat. There’s a collective consciousness that by choosing carefully sourced sustainable options we can make a difference to climate change. 73% of Millennials will pay more for sustainable produce compared to 63% of the general global population and they want to buy into a whole sustainable lifestyle rather than token gestures.

Regenerative Agriculture is a term you should expect to hear more in 2020 - the idea that farmers and food producers must improve growing and grazing practices to improve soil health, increase biodiversity and sequester carbon.

For restaurants, this means sourcing organic or low-input produce, sustainable fish, seafood and meat.

The rise in flexitarianism means not only offering vegan and vegetarian options but also finding ways to reduce meat on the menus. Sustainable Restaurant Association Award winner, The Wheatsheaf in Chilton Foliat has cut meat by a third by taking roasts of the menu and substituting mushrooms for a third of the meat in its burgers aiming to continue to satisfy carnivorous customers.

Fruit and vegetable retailer and wholesaler Turnips Borough which supplies some of London’s top restaurants reports that chefs are demanding produce with a clear provenance or geographic designation from small producers. They believe this is a result of a growing awareness that sustainable farming practices and better soil produce the best tasting ingredients.

Awareness about reducing food waste and single-use plastic will grow further in 2020. Consumers will expect restaurant operators to demonstrate the steps they are taking to improve and show that tackling food waste doesn’t have to be an afterthought. This trend is spearheaded by a series of new restaurant launches putting tackling food waste at the forefront of their brand: including Doug McMaster’s reopening of Silo in London; and Adam Handling’s new ‘sustainable causal’ restaurant, Ugly Butterfly, which opens in Chelsea in December serving dishes made from waste predominantly sourced from his nearby fine-dining restaurant at the Belmond Cadogan Hotel.

6. Healthy Pleasures

8 out of 10 millennials say it’s important to eat healthily and indulge occasionally and people of all ages are looking to mix and match balancing health with the occasional indulgence. Consumers are more likely to seek healthy options on weekdays and at lunchtime and treat themselves at the weekend.

Millennials always have their eyes on the latest health trends. Operators must offer healthy options and whether that’s alternative milk and dairy, gluten-free or vegan options. Other trends that will continue to grow in 2020 included fermented products for their gut-health benefits, ancient and heritage grains including spelt, emmer and naked oats from producers like Hodmedod; as well as alternative gluten-free flour from peas and quinoa.

Younger diners also like the opportunity to personalise their menus making choices that are more or less healthy by picking their own pizza toppings, salad dressing, or burgers with or without a bun.

7. Would you like wine with that?

An extension of the health trend is that numerous reports suggest that younger people are drinking less than their parents. 25% of young people class themselves as non-drinkers (BMC Public Health) and 65% of alcohol consumers aged 25 to 34 “are trying or have tried to cut back on their alcohol intake”.

Dry months Dry January and Sober October are increasingly popular across all age groups and are key periods for operators to offer exciting alternatives and an opportunity to retain some of the margins. Yet restaurants and pubs must offer grown-up, sophisticated alcohol-free options must be available all year round.

There’s an increasing choice no-alcohol spirit alternatives spearheaded by Seedlip who launched Aecorn Aperitifs in 2019. These brands are driving innovation in no-alcohol cocktails or mocktails. Low/No Alcohol beer is seen as more socially acceptable than it was and many more premium brands are entering the market and Michelin starred restaurants including Clove Club and the Standard Hotel have added no-alcohol wines to their lists.

Real Kombucha, launched in 2017, is now stocked on 60 Michelin-starred restaurants and is also served as an aperitif at l’Enclume. While sommeliers at restaurants such as La Gavroche, Clove Club, and Restaurant Nathan Outlaw are creating their own no-alcohol ferments from loose leave teas.

8. Up your Tech Game

We know millennials love convenience so it’s no surprise that many of them turn to technology to improve their dining out experience. 77% of millennials say restaurant technology improves their dining experience.

This generation is tech-savvy and will use apps and mobile technology to research where to eat out, to book, to check wait times, to pay and to share reviews. The prevalence of smartphones has put consumers in control; while portable EPOS systems help businesses run more efficiently.

We’re seeing an increase in technology for branded apps helping restaurant operators to improve loyalty and drive repeat business as well as build efficiencies in ordering and inventory management, and staff scheduling and payroll.

Voice-activated technology will transform the way consumers order food and drink and is expected to change how we book too. Restaurant booking platform, Qundoo believe that 50% of all searches will be voice searches in 2020 while ResDiary now offers bookings through a Facebook chatbot.

Social media has changed the way millennials choose restaurants, bars and cafés and booking through social is expected to grow to. 18-35-year-olds spend five days a year browsing food images on Instagram, and 30% would avoid a restaurant if their Instagram presence was weak.

So restaurant operators must make sure that they are easy to find online and on social media with up-to-date menus and strong images, and adapt the latest technologies to drive online booking.