2019 UK Restaurant Trends and Predictions

Read my 2020 UK Restaurant Trends and Predictions on my new post >

2019 begins with great political and economic uncertainty but what does it hold for the restaurant industry?

The uncertainty is causing a decline in the share of UK consumers eating out, as we show greater prudence with our discretionary spend. According to a new poll by YouGov, almost a third of Britons are visiting restaurants less frequently than last year. The number of lunches eaten out of home in November 2018 was the second lowest on record, after a 3% year-on-year fall, while growth at other meal-times was stagnant according to MCA’s recently launched UK Restaurant Market Report 2018 – conducted via online consumer surveys, analysis of MCA’s market sizing and company specific research.

Here are my predictions for what we’ll see, or see more of in 2019. It will be very interesting to see how these trends in the restaurant sector will play out in 2019.

1. FOOD WASTE

Reducing food waste has been a hot topic for some time. Silo in Brighton became Britain’s first zero-waste restaurant when it opened in 2014 and now others are following suit. 2019 will be the year that restaurants will have to take action and demonstrate to customers that they are tackling the problem. Until now consumers have been increasingly aware of the food wasted in their homes and by supermarkets, this year the attention will turn to restaurants. “If people weren’t already persuaded by the environmental and social impact of food waste, the economic argument has begun to sound persuasive,” says Andrew Stephen, chief executive at the Sustainable Restaurant Association (SRA), which reports that more than 80% of its members now separate their food waste (a proportion that falls to two-thirds for independents).

According to Wrap (The waste reduction organisation) food waste represents a cost to the restaurant sector alone of £682 million each year including food procurement, labour, utilities and waste management costs, or £3,500 per tonne. Wrap estimates that 51% of all waste is recycled. This is made up of: 65% of packaging and other wastes are recycled. Rates of food waste going to composting or to anaerobic digestion (AD) are very low. Almost 900,000 perfectly edible, freshly prepared meals end up in the bin in the UK every day because they haven’t been sold in time by restaurants and cafes according to food waste app Too Good To Go.

Numerous new schemes and technologies are now on the market to help hospitality businesses reduce food waste, such as and Too Good To Go, an app that enables people to buy food from restaurants that would otherwise go to waste. The smart way to deal with food waste is to reduce, recycle and reuse, whether that’s through creative use of leftovers or taking it back to the farmer’s field where it began as compost.

2. PLANT-BASED DINING

The rise of veganism is not news but will only grow stronger in 2019. Plant-based, vegetable-led dining will become even more mainstream. Some hospitality businesses have refused to adapt claiming vegetarianism and veganism is just a passing fad, yet 2019 will be the year that we have to embrace plant-based food as a development that is not going away. Winners will respond by giving vegetable-led dishes equal status on their menus while not alienating meat eaters. It’s not just the increase in vegans and vegetarians but also those of us choosing a ‘flexitarian’ approach.

According to Waitrose & Partners Food & Drink Report 2019 one in eight of us – or almost 13% of the population – is now vegetarian or vegan, with one in five (21%) identifying as ‘flexitarian’. For the first time, The Good Food Guide 2019 by Waitrose & Partners has highlighted restaurants with specifically vegan menus - a list that reaches 107.

With vegetables as centre stage, we’re seeing great innovation to introduce new flavours and textures. Once underrated home-grown vegetables like celeriac and swede rise in prominence, while others like avocado will see a demise as we become aware of their environmental impact.

3. THE BLUE PLANET EFFECT

Once seen never forgotten, BBC One’s Blue Planet II made us all wake up to the impact that plastic is having on our environment, not least the scenes of albatrosses feeding their young plastic. Waitrose & Partner’s research suggests that of those of us who saw the programme 88% of us have changed our behaviour as a result marking a new era of environmental awareness. Consumers will question restaurants’ use of plastics as well as the food industry and retailers and will demand an end to single-use plastics.

We’re already seeing a backlash against plastic straws and a search for practical alternatives. The take-away and street-food sector will be forced to rethink packaging to find sustainable alternatives, not only take-away cups but also food carriers and cutlery. In restaurant kitchens, chefs will have to find alternatives to storage materials like cling film. The Sustainable Restaurant Association (SRA) has lunched a guide to help hospitality business find viable alternatives and make decisions and held an sent Unwrapping Plastic Use and Misuse in Hospitality.

Skye Gyngell from Spring restaurant in London said that the issue had been brought into focus after she worked out that since opening Spring her team had used enough clingfilm to stretch from their central London location to Istanbul. Gyngell said: “Single-use plastic is a really serious issue, but we shouldn’t be catastrophising it. Instead, we should recognise that we are better off now than we were 50 years ago and face up to the fact that this is our challenge, our problem to solve now. It’s also really important to understand that it’s nowhere near as hard you think to use less plastic.”

4. TRANSPARENCY & TRUST

As consumers become more concerned about the environmental and health impacts of their diet, transparency is key. Consumers will demand clear information about raw ingredients such as the use of controversial products like Palm Oil, the farming standards (organic, free range etc) of the food on their plates and the specific sources of meat, dairy and vegetables.

After years of the media revealing the less than savoury truths about the food industry, consumers want to know what’s really in the food they’re eating and they’re more likely to pledge loyalty to brands that they can trust. Consumers know they have a choice, and will always prefer brands that take an extra moment to cater to their needs such as a simple “GF” next to gluten-free dishes on the menu.

Consumers will ask questions about the food they are buying. The best operators will provide the answers and address consumer concerns. Chefs should prioritise shorter supply chain sustainability and ensure that all staff front of house and in the kitchen can talk confidently about their sourcing.

5. CALORIE COUNTING

As part of the Government’s goal of cutting childhood obesity, Public Health England has proposed guidelines to impose calorie caps on ready meals, sandwiches and restaurant dishes The announcement has largely been met with derision by the industry with chefs like my client Andrew Sheridan, from Sosban in Llanelli telling The Telegraph: “The world's gone absolutely bananas. It would take the enjoyment out of it. Going out for a nice meal is supposed to be indulgent, you don't want to be sitting there counting calories."

It seems like an impossible ask for small independent restaurants to carry the burden of the nation’s growing obesity epidemic. But for the mass market where portions are often unnecessarily large it's important to know the nutritional content of the food we're eating, not just calories but also fat and salt.

The guidelines are only at consultation stage and how, if at all, they are implemented remains to be seen, yet restaurants should be aware of the debate and consumer expectations.

6. SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL

2018 saw a well-documented shake up of the casual dining sector. Perhaps one of the positive outcomes of which has been the way that it’s allowed the independent sector to shine. Today’s cynical consumers see through brand gimmicks and chainy sameyness and seek authenticity and individuality. In 2018 restaurant sector growth was greatest in the regions outside London as operators seek less crowded markets, although disposable income is lower outside London, there is a far lower presence of modern, highly branded restaurant chains.

Small secret restaurants with backdoor entrances or hidden within a larger restaurant are also something we expect to see more of in 2019 such as Nuno Mendez Mãos and Kirk Haworth’s Saturday only restaurant Plates in Hoxton.

Likewise small focussed menus will appeal to diners and will mean less complexity in the kitchen, a leaner supply chain, lower food costs and less food waste too.

7. AUTHENTIC EXPERIENCE ECONOMY

The pressure on disposable income means eating out will become more of a treat and so diners will expect a great quality experience, not just in terms of the food and drink. The whole dining experience needs to be memorable to encourage people through the door and keep them coming back.

Consumers will seek out unique experiences whether discovering a true slice of local or ethnic cuisine on holiday or down a neighbourhood side-street, a pop-up restaurant or a supper club in someone’s home kitchen. An Eventbrite survey discovered that 75% of people said that they believe unique dining experiences are worth paying more for.

Diners want to be engaged and entertained. Research by Barclaycard in 2018 found half of consumers (52%) would rather pay for a good experience than splash out on material possessions. The same number (52%) would choose to tell their friends and peers about an enjoyable brand experience rather than a purchase they’ve made. 68% of respondents said the setting they are served in is as important as the food or drink itself – a clear sign that providing the best quality product or price is no longer enough.

8. TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION

2019 will see big changes to how technology is used in the hospitality sector both front of house and in the kitchen.

Technology can increase convenience and reduce costs in both restaurants and pubs and home-delivery. The ability to book a table via an app or social media is already widely available. We’re increasingly seeing the use of apps to check accurate waiting times for tables in restaurants where making reservations ahead is not an option.

Once inside the restaurant technology increasingly offers diners a seamless experience from viewing the menu, ordering and paying. In restaurants where orders are sent straight to the kitchen via tablets or other devices, it reduces misplaced orders, the need to decode poor hand writing and provides and instant and accurate record for the most popular dishes. Technology can be linked straight into stock management systems to facilitate easy ordering.

Technology can also provide solutions to supply chain transparency and traceability, manage food waste and improve customer loyalty.

While speed and convenience may increase satisfaction, it’s crucial to remember that it’s no substitute for real personal service and relationship building.

10 Consumer Food Trends to Watch

We take a look at what trends are emerging in how British consumers shop and eat.  Are our habits changing in response to growing awareness of diet-related health? How will Brexit affect our shopping baskets? And how is social media changing our relationship with food?

1. Scratch Cooking

There is a small but significant shift towards more people cooking from scratch as we realise that it is not only cheaper than buying pre-prepared food but healthier too. 49% of consumers are driven by the ability to control ingredients when cooking from scratch. (Mintel Cooking in the Home UK May 2016).

2. Convenience and control

Our increasingly busy lifestyles mean convenience is still a major factor and there is evidence that we spend less time preparing meals than we used to. The combination of the desire to cook with fresh ingredients and convenience of the pre-prepared, is driving the demand for meal kits like Gousto and Hello Fresh, and now followed by supermarkets introducing their own brand equivalents.

The growth of 1-2 person households amongst younger and older generations is also a factor in our meal choices and shopping habits. Smaller pack or portion sizes are a key to appealing to these small households.

3. Food as self-expression

Cooking has become a leisure activity, a way to relax and be creative rather than just a functional activity.  While we might spend less time in our kitchens during the week we are likely to indulge in more creative cooking at weekends. “Eating in is the new eating out” according to the Waitrose 2016 Food & Drink Report.

We are inspired by television cookery shows like Great British Bake Off and Masterchef, as well as by social media, Cooking special meals at home, whether just for family or friends is seen as a genuine alternative to eating out and an opportunity to be creative and indulgent. Consumers will treat themselves to special and luxurious ingredients for these occasions. These consumers associate cooking with feeling confident, valued and relaxed rather than more negative feelings like stressful, boring and annoying.

For marketeers, tapping into this positive emotional aspect of cooking will increase sharing and engagement. messages that focus on the enjoyment of cooking and eating together with family and friends will win loyalty.

4. Living Well

Looking after our bodies no longer means dull diets and sacrificing flavour.  UK Consumers have recognised that eating well is about making sensible choices as part of everyday life and that the occasional treat is ok.

We seek out lighter, fresher and simpler foods - salads over sandwiches for lunch - though convenience is key we want to be healthy without having to make an effort.

5. Following the crowd

Social media, rather than traditional print and broadcast media, is driving food trends including the demand for perceived superfoods like chia, seaweed and spelt while once exotic products, like quinoa and coconut water, are now mainstream.

Consumers are turning to bloggers and influencers like Deliciously Ella and Hemsley & Hemsley for advice just as much as we listen to health and nutrition professionals. 

6. Free-from

The impact of these ‘health gurus’ has driven the demand for gluten-free foods, not for essential health reasons, but because people perceive them to be more healthy. Some retailers are reporting a tapering off in demand for gluten-free products at the same time as giving over more shelf-space to lactose-free products; demonstrating just how fast these trends come and go.

7. Rise of vegetarianism and veganism

UK consumers are turning their backs on the the traditional plate of meat and two veg and moving towards a more plant-based diet.  For many this is just a case of eating less meat and fish and choosing meat-free days; for others, younger consumers especially, it means rejecting animal products completely.  In the last decade, the number of vegans in Britain has risen more than 360% according to a survey by the Vegan Society.  These numbers are expected to grow further.

8. Anytime is snack time

We are seeing a blurring of boundaries between traditional meal times with big increases in snacking between meals especially between lunch and breakfast.  This pattern emerges as we try to fit more into busy lifestyles and make less time to sit down and eat - and households are less likely to come together for a meal. 

We eat breakfast on the go and lunch at our desks and brands are responding to this with new categories like breakfast drinks and formats such as snack-sized packs.

9. Conscious consumption

Consumers are more curious than ever before about where food comes from.  A third of us care more about the environment and society than we did five years ago and two thirds of us consider where food is sourced some of the time (Waitrose 2016 Food & Drink Report.) 

Millennials especially recognise how they have an ethical and environmental responsibility when making choices about what they eat and are conscious about what the brands they buy say about them with two thirds of 25-34 year olds saying they ‘want to buy food & drink products that reflect their attitudes and opinions’

For brands this means creating credible and convincing messages about your product and brand and communicating those credentials through all channels from packaging and point of sale to social media.

10. Looming food inflation

Food constitutes just 12% of disposable income in the UK, an all time low after three years of deflation, according to analysts Sanford Bernstein. However, the fall of sterling following the 2016 referendum to leave the EU and continued uncertainty is starting to affect food prices. While UK farmers and food producers warn of rising prices due to increasing labour costs with a shortfall in the number of European seasonal labourers working here. 

Analysts predict that UK consumers will swallow these price rises up to a point, bouyed by intensifying competition between retailers for shoppers’ pound. But consumers are being warned to brace themselves for price rises – perhaps by as much as 8% on those products for which Britain is almost solely reliant on the EU.