At this time of year, I usually publish my restaurant industry trends and predictions for the year ahead, but if there’s one thing that this year has taught us, it’s that it’s impossible to predict the future, or even the next month.
So, here are a few thoughts about hopes and fears for the restaurant and pub trade in 2021 from my clients and colleagues in hospitality.
Piers Baker, The Sun Inn, Dedham and Church Street Tavern, Colchester:
“I believe 2021 is a major opportunity for a reset of our industry so that the dire straits we found ourselves in March won’t be repeated. What needs addressing? The beer tie, upward only rents, better landlord/tenant relationships, business rates, VAT and insurance. Every hospitality business knows it, the government must (more reason for a Minster of Hospitality). Sustainability, health and a better understanding of the importance of food in our diets for our ability to combat disease. This must start in schools but our industry can play a massive role in this. From employment, partnerships with education, understanding and sourcing of food.
Mid-March, our financial year ending June 2020 was on track to be our best to date. Lockdown meant it ended up being our worst. But the way our customers have reacted since July has given me great hope for 2021 once restrictions are lifted for good. I have taken greater steps to be financially leaner, using technology to make us more efficient, paying suppliers earlier, creating a financial backstop. There is still 3-4 months of hardship and unknowns ahead. Beyond the annoyance and frustration of the government, I do feel hopeful, we will survive and thrive.”
WIlliam Griffiths, The Angel Hotel, Abergavenny and The Walnut Tree Inn:
“We weren't surprised to learn of a new lockdown being imposed in Wales, having seen the cases continue to rise over the past few weeks, despite the additional hospitality restrictions which have been in place. It would be useful to have more clear communication on how long this is expected to last, as the current review every three weeks, means we will have to second guess decisions again, in order to try and give customers and suppliers notice for either reopening, or further cancellations. We already know it's not feasible for us to operate under the alert level three restrictions, therefore, realistically don't expect to be able to reopen now until the Spring.”
Peter Lloyd, Sticky Mango, London:
“It’s difficult to have a balanced point of view when you're trying to save your business. It goes without question that we have to put the safety of our staff, guests and public first, but there needs to be a more targeted approach to how we contain the virus. The reality is we are being denied the right to protect our businesses and livelihoods and not being supported enough by the government. The new grant scheme just doesn’t do enough to cover the fixed costs of rent, utilities, pension and NI contributions let alone the costs and wastage of having to reopen, close down, reopen and close down again. There is no doubt this is a tragic time for all involved but if we don’t get more support we just won’t be here when the dust has settled and the economy needs us all to perform to bounce back. With differed VAT bills due, bounce back loans to repay and forecasted business it’s really not looking good for 2021.”
Brendan Padfield, The Unruly Pig, Suffolk:
“Just as we thought the UK may be turning a corner, I am nervous as to what setback may be caused by the advent of a mutant strain of COVID-19. The hospitality industry is on its knees. If we are going to be able to sustainably support two million-plus jobs as the third largest sector employer, continued government support via a rates holiday and a 5% VAT rate is critical.
COVID-19 has brought out the very best and the very worst in people. My fear for 2021 is that some of the discourteous, selfish and abusive behaviour towards some members of my team and others in hospitality has now become ingrained in society. My hope is that the acts of kindness, loyalty, support and encouragement shown by the majority of customers will continue in abundance. My belief and firm conviction is that it will.“
As the vaccine means that by the summer, things should be getting back to something more normal, I hope that eventually, we will get back to what we love doing - delivering lovely food, great service and making our customers smile. That is why we do what we do because there is simply nothing better in life than the buzz of a busy restaurant s full of happy customers. But will summer 2021 see a downturn in comparative trade as all the benefits of ‘Staycation 2020’ evaporate with larger numbers of customers than normal choosing to holiday abroad?”
